Africa Cup of Nations 2024 Team Rankings: Sizing Up the Contenders for African Soccer Supremacy

24. Mozambique

Reasons for optimism include the squad's smattering of genuine talent, most notably Atletico Madrid's Reinildo Mandava and Sporting Lisbon's Geny Catamo, and Mozambique's elimination of Benin during qualification.

Why they will not win: Mozambique returns to the top table as rank outsiders for the first time in 14 years after going winless in their previous 12 AFCON matches. A victory in the tournament for the first time since 1996 would be a good result.   

23. Namibia

Reasons for optimism: Mamelodi Sundowns' Peter Shalulile scored in all of Namibia's qualifiers and is looking forward to the big occasion. Namibia is capable of breaking a few noses and will play South Africa in a COSAFA derby on January 21.

Why they will not win: Their previous three campaigns all ended in the group stage, and it is difficult to predict a better outcome this time around. A lack of organization at the federation level, combined with an ongoing bonus dispute, threatens to derail the Brave Warriors.

22. Tanzania

Reasons for optimism: Tanzania, who are often attractive but horribly brittle when put under pressure, demonstrated another side of themselves when they held Algeria 0-0 in September. Could that game serve as a blueprint for AFCON survival?

Why they will not win: No other team scored fewer than Tanzania's three goals during qualification. They only found the net once in two doubleheaders against Uganda and Algeria. 

21. Guinea-Bissau

Reasons for optimism: They are now consistent qualifiers, having reached all four tournaments in the last four years, and must now demonstrate that lessons were learned from that trio of continental campaigns.

Why they will not win: The Djurtus have failed to score in each of their last seven AFCON appearances, dating back to 2017, and may struggle to trouble the continent's toughest defenses once more.

20. Angola

Reasons for optimism: Despite a weak qualifying group that included Madagascar and the Central African Republic, Angola have plenty of flair and creativity - notably Cagliari's Zito Luvumbo - and their individualism can make them a dangerous prospect.

Why they are unlikely to win: M'bala Nzola of Fiorentina, who is still missing after appearing to have lost faith in the federation, would have been a sure starter, while ex-Leeds United man Hélder Costa is another who could have provided the cutting edge to sneak into the knockout stages. 

19. Mauritania

Reasons for optimism: Mauritania, another beneficiary of the expanded AFCON, is competing in their third consecutive tournament. They must show that they have grown wiser as a result of their experience, though qualifying despite a three-point deduction hints at their character under meticulous head coach Amir Abdou.

Why they are unlikely to win: Mauritania is always competitive in their Nouakchott home, but they are a far inferior prospect away from their local support and familiar surroundings.

Cape Verde

Reasons for optimism: 2023 saw an impressive away draw against Morocco, as well as a home victory over Burkina Faso, fueling optimism that Cape Verde's experienced heads can help them compete against group foe Egypt and Ghana.

Why they will not win it: As a team in transition, the islanders may only need a win over Mozambique to advance, but they rely too heavily on the veterans of a decade ago (Ryan Mendes, Garry Rodrigues, Stopira) to go the distance.

17. Gambia

Reasons for optimism: Gambia is a talented team that is expertly drilled by Tom Saintfiet and proudly wears their underdog tag. Worthy quarterfinalists in 2022, they could have been quietly confident of repeating that run...

Why they will not win: However, tournament preparation has been disastrous, with a bonus row, an unnecessary trip to Saudi Arabia for a training camp, and near-carbon monoxide poisoning during the team's flight to Ivory Coast. It is difficult to see how this combination could not affect their performance. 

16. Zambia

Reasons for optimism: Zambia has a plethora of attacking options, including Lameck Banda, Patson Daka, and Fashion Sakala, who should be enough to propel them out of Group F. They also have a coach with AFCON experience in Avram Grant, albeit with a much stronger Ghana selection in 2015.

Why they will not win it: There are still defensive flaws - only five teams conceded more in qualification - and Grant may have his work cut out for him on the training field before the tournament to ensure Zambia can keep their opponents at bay.

15. Guinea

Reasons for optimism: Guinea has one of the world's best players in Serhou Guirassy going into the Nations Cup. The forward has 17 goals in 14 Bundesliga games this season, and he is already proven - against Brazil and Egypt - that he can lead the line effectively for the Syli Nationale.

Guirassy is injured, which is why they will not win. The Stuttgarter has made the squad and is expected to return, but an injury sustained in Guinea's final pre-tournament warm-up game against Nigeria has dampened expectations. Is there enough talent beyond him - and ex-Liverpool man Naby Keita - to trouble the big boys?

14. South Africa

Reasons for optimism: South Africa appears to be in good shape heading into the AFCON, with Hugo Broos forging a competitive team based on the stars and style of continental powerhouses Mamelodi Sundowns. Percy Tau, for example, adds more experience (and possibly a dash of magic).

Why they will not win it: Both Lebo Mothiba and Lyle Foster will miss the Nations Cup, denying Bafana Bafana two of their main goal threats, while tensions between Broos and SAFA are expected to rise. The Belgian coach's outspoken style and forthright approach has helped restore some of South Africa's swagger, but he is not afraid to ruffle a few feathers.  

13. Equatorial Guinea

Reasons to be optimistic: Equatorial Guinea are Continental minnows, but they have a decent Nations Cup pedigree, having never been eliminated in the group stage. They were crucial in Algeria's shock elimination in 2022 and will not be intimidated. The disciplined Nzalang Nacional will fear no one after going unbeaten in 2023.

Why they will not win: Few will beat them for unity or togetherness, but Equatorial Guinea lacks genuinely top-tier talent - only three of their squad play in a major European league - and can struggle to impose themselves on fixtures.

10. DR Congo

Reasons for optimism: Defensive organization has been the bedrock upon which Sebastien Desabre's DRC have returned to the Nations Cup, with the Leopards keeping eight clean sheets across all fixtures in 2023.

Why they will not win: Desabre's side does not have many obvious flaws. They are vulnerable to counter-attacks and set pieces, and while 32-year-old Cédric Bakambu remains in the squad, his centre-forward rivals (Fiston Mayele, Silas Mvumpa, and Simon Banza) have only two international goals between them.

11. Ghana

Reasons for optimism: Mohammed Kudus enters the Nations Cup in commanding form, having starred for West Ham United since his arrival in the Premier League. He is built on his eye-catching World Cup performances to become a complete operator in the top flight, and he is already taken on a leadership role in this Black Stars squad. There is no shortage of talent around him, with Chris Hughton blending a collective of experienced heads and vibrant emerging talent.

Why they will not win: Hughton's side failed to cope against the USA or Mexico (losing 4-0 and 2-0, respectively), while also being humbled against Comoros during the qualifiers. The head coach's safety-first approach does not always get the best out of his attacking options, and the return of André Ayew - who is without a club until November - may destabilize the squad rather than galvanize it. Injured absentee Thomas Partey is also a significant loss. 

10. Nigeria

Reasons for optimism: With so much talent on paper, not least Victor Osimhen, Nigeria has the firepower to blow teams away if they click (as they threatened to do during the group stage last time around).

Why they will not win: The Super Eagles have grown accustomed to being less than the sum of their parts. There appears to be little trust in head coach Jose Peseiro, who appears to be a dead man walking, and injuries to Wilfred Ndidi and Victor Boniface may prove costly. The West Africans are also vulnerable due to a lack of a quality goalkeeper.

9. Burkina Faso

Reasons to be optimistic: No one does 'AFCON wildcards' better than Burkina Faso, who are perennially underrated at the continental level. With the astute Hubert Velud at the helm, three final four finishes in their last four tournaments, and the likes of Edmond Tapsoba and Dango Ouattara among their ranks, another impressive run could be in the works.

Why they will not win it: Bertrand Traoré is the team's talisman, and while he is capable of flashes of brilliance, he is only played 10 minutes in the Premier League this season, and will be far from match sharp. In domestic football, there is also an internal revolt against Velud, though the impact on the AFCON remains to be seen. 

8. Mali
Reasons for optimism: The pipeline of talent continues unabated, with Mali excelling at the youth level and a steady progression from junior sides to the senior set-up.

Why they are unlikely to win: Mali are arguably African football's biggest underachievers, having failed to win the Nations Cup or qualify for the World Cup due to a proclivity for choking under pressure. This year will be no different, with a poorly timed injury crisis (Ibrahima Kone tops a list of high-profile absentees) prompting a reshuffle from Eric Chelle.

7. Tunisia

Consistency - Tunisia has reached the knockout stages in eight of the last ten tournament appearances - and (apologies for the cliché) the 'grinta' and guts to edge past some of the continent's less seasoned selections are reasons for optimism.

Why they will not win it: Slow start - Tunisia has failed to win their first Nations Cup game in every tournament since 2013 - an evenly matched group could leave the Carthage Eagles with too much ground to make up later on. They may be lacking a spark without Hannibal Mejbri, Ferjani Sassi, or Wahbi Khazri.

6. Cameroon

Reasons for optimism: The character Cameroon displayed in knocking Algeria out of World Cup qualification or battling back against Burkina Faso in the 2022 bronze-medal match should serve this collective well. Head coach Rigobert Song keeps the reins (almost) steady as FA President Samuel Eto'o keeps a close eye on things, while the decision to reconcile with André Onana, who was exiled from camp during the World Cup, gives the Indomitable Lions another asset. Players like Vincent Aboubakar, Karl Toko Ekambi, and Clinton N'Jie have previous Nations Cup experience.

Why they will not win: Cameroon is never too far away from a crisis that could derail their title hopes. Expect a tumultuous campaign for the Indomitable Lions, whether it is an Eto'o intervention, key players being kicked out of the team hotel, or another unforeseen scandal.

5. Egypt

Reasons for optimism: Except for an incredible lull of not qualifying between 2012 and 2015, and their capitulation on home soil in 2019, no team knows how to navigate the Nations Cup quite like the Pharaohs. They have reached the final in five of their last six tournament appearances, including a runner-up finish last time out, and with Mohamed Salah still in his prime, there is no better match-winner on the continent.

Why they will not win: Despite encouraging signs from players such as Mostafa Mohamed and Omar Marmoush, Egypt's reliance on Salah remains. If he is silenced, as Senegal did in the previous AFCON final, the North Africans will quickly run out of ideas.

4. Ivory Coast

Reasons for optimism: Hosting a tournament can be a blessing or a curse (no hosts have won since Egypt in 2006), but the Elephants and their supporters appear ready to have a good time this time. Expectations are generally lower than they have been over the last decade, and if the West Africans can ride the wave of local support, they may reach the final stages.

Why they are unlikely to win: A lot is riding on Sébastien Haller, especially after the decision to leave Wilfried Zaha out of the tournament squad, despite the fact that the Borussia Dortmund striker has failed to score in 13 club appearances. Too many of the supporting actors (Nicolas Pépé, Jean Seri, Max Gradel, Willy Boly, and Sèrge Aurier) appear to be in their forties. If they begin slowly in a difficult group, the 'home support' may become a burden.

3. Algeria

Reasons for optimism: Many of the players who won the title in 2019 before embarking on a continental record undefeated streak are still on the team, and with Riyad Mahrez still an inspirational presence, they have the motivation and conviction to make amends for a devastating 2022 season.

Why they are unlikely to win: Despite Djamel Belmadi's efforts to rejuvenate his classic squad with youth, there are still a few creaking old hands in key positions. Islam Slimani, now 35, and Baghdad Bounedjah, 32, are the main goal threats, while Riyad Mahrez (32), Youcef Belali (31), Sofiane Feghouli (34) and Assa Mandi (32) continue to play important roles. Will the truth about aging legs be revealed? 

2. Senegal

Reasons for optimism: Senegal advanced to the World Cup knockout stages, aiming to become the fourth team to retain the Nations Cup. Captain Sadio Mané returns after missing Qatar, and under head coach Aliou Cisse, this team remains familiar and unified, with an excellent spirit, tough defense, and encouraging attacking options.

Why they will not win: They do not have many flaws. Lamine Camara and Pape Matar Sarr have revitalized an aging midfield. Could the departure of players like Sadio Mane, Kalidou Koulibaly, and Édouard Mendy to the Saudi league blunt their competitiveness?

1. Morocco

Reasons to be optimistic: Morocco has long been the best-run federation in African football, and a talented group of players led by Walid Regragui made history by reaching the World Cup semifinals in Qatar. They appear to be well placed to win their first championship since 1976, with quality across the board, automatic habits within the team, and experience navigating elite knockout football.

Why they will not win: The recent club form of instrumental creators Hakim Ziyech and Sofiane Boufal should be a cause for concern. Morocco, too, has had some disappointing results since the World Cup. Morocco, with one title win in 19 appearances and only one semifinal appearance since the 1980s, is a regular when it comes to falling short of pre-tournament expectations. They are not going to repeat these bad habits, are they?